Against all odds and despite its unimpressive effectiveness record, the United Nations remains the sole formal authority willing to and capable of facilitating a sustainable peace in Syria. The Policy Brief will analyse the role of the United Nations in Syria, and that of the major powers that most influence the UN and global events. It will examine to what extent past conflicts and their resolution are relevant to today’s Syrian war and whether the UN has learnt from its engagement in previous conflicts and scholarly research on it. It also argues that the Trump administration may be ready to let Bashar al-Assad retake the urbanised belt of Western Syria and then push the UN to mediate in the conflict with only a fraction of the opposition involved, which would de facto legitimise the government in Damascus anew, or recognise the end of the civil war altogether.

This Policy Brief was written in the framework of the EuroMeSCo Working Package “Future of Syria”, led by the Global Political Trends Center.