Paper

Political Scenarios for the EU and Its Neighbourhood – Views from Selected Southern Mediterranean and Eastern European Countries

October 2006

Abstract

This study contains an analysis of two major decisions the European Union needs to face. First, a decision is pending on the future institutional setup of the EU, as expressed in the Constitutional Treaty. Second, questions revolve around the future enlargements. Concerns have been voiced over the EU’s absorption capacity and calls are being made for the EU to define its ultimate borders. Therefore, the EU’s “finalité geographique”, as the authors coin it, also remains unclear.

The answers to these fundamental questions will not only determine the EU’s own future course. They will also frame the way in which the EU relates to global politics, and thus its closest neighbourhood. In this light, this report discusses the ways in which some of the major European questions (and some possible answers to them) are believed to impact upon the ENP according to a number of selected partners in the Southern Mediterranean and Eastern Europe. The analysis is guided by four major political scenarios for the future development of Europe and relate to the Constitution and further rounds of enlargement.

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