Policy Brief

Lebanon: Current Domestic and Regional Situation and Outlook

February 2012

Abstract

Lebanon is caught in the middle of crises resulting from the Arab Spring and rising ethno-sectarian tensions due to the showdown between the Iranian axis on the one hand and the US and its Gulf allies on the other hand. The Lebanese political system is divided along these lines as well. Since Lebanese political parties see their political survival as being tied to regional and international developments, there is a danger of such crises spilling over to Lebanon. Some fear that a collapse of the Syrian regime could provoke a Hezbollah military takeover. In light of rising political tensions and worsening socio-economic conditions, the resignation or collapse of the incumbent government may leave a political vacuum with unclear consequences. At the moment, political actors in Lebanon are thus focused on trying to weather this political storm.

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